Key findings
- The burden is growing faster than the population. New cases rise from 42,116 (2020) to a projected 58,000 in 2028 and 95,217 by 2040.
- Breast and prostate cancer are rising. Breast cancer has overtaken cervical cancer as the leading cancer in women.
- Cancer is mostly found late. About 7 in 10 cases are diagnosed at an advanced stage, and there are 0.64 deaths for every new case.
- The 2017 targets were never measured. The national risk-factor survey was not repeated, and only 28% of the 215 planned interventions were fully done.
- The 2023 plan overstates its cost by 56%. Its components add up to KES 31.6bn, not the KES 49.2bn it reports.
- Kenya trails its neighbours on prevention. In 2025, 25% of Kenyan girls had a first HPV dose by age 15, against 94% in Tanzania. See how Kenya compares.
The burden
Both strategies describe Kenya’s cancer burden using GLOBOCAN, the international agency estimates built from a few regional registries. Those registries cover only 5–10% of Kenyans, so the national figures are modelled, not counted.
- 42,116new cancer cases in 2020
- 27,092cancer deaths in 2020
- 63%of new cases are in women
- 78new cases per 100,000 people a year
Sources: NCCS 2017–2022 (GLOBOCAN 2012); NCCS 2023–2027 country profile and projections. The 2018 to 2020 drop reflects a change in estimation method, not a real decline.
Which cancers are rising
Between the 2012 and 2020 estimates, breast cancer rose and cervical cancer fell among women, prostate cancer rose sharply among men, and oesophageal cancer fell in both sexes. Breast, cervical, colorectal and prostate cancer, the four with screening or early-diagnosis pathways, make up 43% of all new cases.
Sources: NCCS 2017–2022 (GLOBOCAN 2012); NCCS 2023–2027 Figure 1 (IARC 2020).
How lethal cancer is
For every 100 new cancer cases in Kenya, there are about 64 cancer deaths. For oesophageal, liver, pancreatic and lung cancer, the figure is above 90.
Derived from NCCS 2023–2027 Appendix 3. A rough proxy for the share of patients who do not survive, sensitive to incomplete case-finding.
The main driver is late diagnosis: 70–80% of patients presented at an advanced stage in 2017, and about 69% still did in 2023. Childhood cancer survival is 20–30%, compared with more than 90% in high-income countries.
Where it is heading
Source: NCCS 2023–2027 Figure 3 (Global Cancer Observatory). Projections assume today’s age-specific rates applied to a growing, ageing population.
What the two strategies set out to do
The 2023–2027 strategy is better structured, costed and benchmarked than its predecessor. It still starts from the same data gaps.
| Dimension | 2017–2022 | 2023–2027 | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burden data | GLOBOCAN 2012 | GLOBOCAN 2018 and 2020, projections to 2040 | Updated |
| Risk-factor data | STEPS survey 2015 | STEPS survey 2015 | Unchanged |
| Overall goal | Not quantified | Cut premature cancer deaths by one third by 2028, with no baseline | Not measurable |
| Quantified targets | 8, all in prevention and screening | 12 headline indicators | Improved |
| Late-stage diagnosis | From 80% to 40% | From 69% to 50% | Relaxed |
| Registry coverage | About 10% | 5% high-quality, target 20% | Not comparable |
| Costing | None | KES 31.6bn (stated as 49.2bn) | Improved, with error |
Sources: NCCS 2017–2022 implementation matrix; NCCS 2023–2027 strategies and Table 13. Tobacco and alcohol baselines in both plans come from the 2015 STEPS survey.
Stage by stage
Prevention Not measurable
2017–2022
- Tobacco 13.1% to 10%
- Alcohol 19% to 13%
- Infection-related cancers 33% to 16%
2023–2027
- Tobacco 13.3% to 6.5%, alcohol 19% to 10% by 2028
- HPV vaccination 58% to 90% by 2030
- Infections cause 31% of cancer cases
Targets doubled in ambition, but none of the 2017 risk-factor targets was re-measured.
Screening and early detection Expanded
2017–2022
- Screening 16% to 25%
- Cervical screening pilot in five counties
2023–2027
- Cervical screening 31% or 42% to 70%
- Breast screening 1% to 30%
- Colorectal under 1% to 30%, with only a KES 78.2m pilot funded
Scope widened to three cancers; the colorectal target has no matching budget.
Diagnosis Target relaxed
2017–2022
- 70–80% diagnosed late
- Target 40%
2023–2027
- 69% diagnosed late
- Target 50%
- National Cancer Reference Laboratory set up
About 10 points of improvement in five years; the new target is more realistic but slower.
Treatment and palliative care Quantified
2017–2022
- Childhood survival 20–30%
- Capacity not quantified
2023–2027
- 12 cancer centres, 58 oncologists, 11 medical physicists
- Treatment access 23% to 80%
- Palliative care access 2% to 50%
The first quantified treatment targets; at about 726 new cases per oncologist, 80% access is a steep climb.
Registration and data Not comparable
2017–2022
- Three registries covering about 10% of people
- Two more planned by 2019
2023–2027
- High-quality coverage 5% to 20%
- No national burden report in five years
Routine facility data improved; population-level data did not.
Financing Costed, with error
2017–2022
- Not costed
2023–2027
- KES 31.6bn actual total
- Cancer budget 0.8% to 10% of the health budget
- One third of health spending is out of pocket
The first costed strategy, but its total is overstated.
Source: NCCS 2023–2027 Table 13. Multipliers show target divided by baseline.
Source: NCCS 2023–2027 Tables 10 and 11.
How Kenya compares
Kenya’s strategies only look inward. To see what the numbers mean, we set Kenya beside six African countries, India, and three high-income countries, using the newest international estimates (GLOBOCAN 2024, from the WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer) and WHO coverage data.
Cancer is less common here, and deadlier
After adjusting for age, Kenya records about 110 new cancers per 100,000 people a year, against 286 in the United Kingdom, 298 in the United States and 322 in Australia. Some of that gap is real and some is cancer that is never diagnosed. The outcome is not in doubt: Kenya counts 0.64 deaths for every new case, the same ratio its 2023 strategy reports. The three high-income countries see 0.33 to 0.44.
Source: IARC Global Cancer Observatory, GLOBOCAN 2024, all cancers excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, both sexes. Ratio is deaths divided by new cases. African and Indian figures are modelled from a few regional registries.
Breast cancer: rarer, but more often fatal
A woman in Kenya is about a third as likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer as a woman in the United Kingdom (31.5 against 93.1 new cases per 100,000), yet more likely to die of it (16.2 against 14.1 deaths per 100,000). WHO sees the same pattern worldwide. In countries with a low Human Development Index, one woman in 27 is diagnosed with breast cancer in her lifetime and one in 48 dies of it. In countries with a very high index, one in 12 is diagnosed and one in 71 dies.
Cervical cancer is the widest gap
Cervical cancer is almost entirely preventable, which makes it the clearest measure of a health system. Kenya records 24.0 new cases and 14.9 deaths per 100,000 women. The United Kingdom, the United States and Australia record 5.4 to 7.6 new cases and fewer than 2 deaths. WHO counts cervical cancer as eliminated once a country falls to 4 or fewer new cases per 100,000 women a year.
Source: IARC Global Cancer Observatory, GLOBOCAN 2024, age-standardised rates (world standard). Elimination threshold: WHO cervical cancer fact sheet, 3 July 2026.
Prevention: where Kenya trails its neighbours
WHO’s 2030 targets ask for 90% of girls vaccinated against HPV by age 15, 70% of women screened with a high-performance test by 35 and again by 45, and 90% of women with precancer or cancer treated. In 2025, 25% of Kenyan girls had a first HPV dose by age 15, against 94% in Tanzania, 84% in Rwanda and 77% in Uganda. Kenya’s programme figure for the same year is higher, at 69%, because catch-up campaigns also reach older girls.
Screening is low across the region. WHO estimates that 13% of Kenyan women aged 30 to 49 had been screened in the five years to 2019, well below both baselines in the 2023 strategy (31% and 42%).
Sources: WHO/UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage, HPV vaccination by age 15, first dose, females, 2025 (July 2026 release; no estimate for India). WHO Global Health Observatory, women aged 30 to 49 screened in the last five years, modelled 2019 estimates. WHO’s screening target counts a high-performance test by 35 and 45, so the 70% line is a guide, not a like-for-like comparison.
What the comparison tells us
- Kenya’s problem is not how common cancer is. It is how often cancer kills, which points to late diagnosis and access to treatment.
- HPV vaccination is the gain within closest reach. Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda already vaccinate three to four times as many girls by age 15.
- Better registry data would settle how much of the gap is real, and it would stop Kenya’s estimates swinging between editions.
Ten issues in the data
If you plan to cite either strategy, check these first. We rated each by how much it could change an analysis.
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High
The cost total counts clinical costs twice. The total is KES 31.6bn, not 49.2bn.2023 plan, Table 10
-
High
The county incidence map uses implausible units. 1,200–2,000+ per 100,000 is about 20 times the national rate.2023 plan, Figure 4
-
Medium
Prevalent cases by sex are likely swapped. 54,156 men and 28,464 women contradicts a 63% female share of new cases.2023 plan, Section 1.3
-
Medium
Cervical screening has two baselines, 31% in the text and 42% in the indicator table.2023 plan
-
Medium
Treatment access is given three ways: 23%, 26% and 28%.2023 plan
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Medium
2020 deaths appear as 27,092 and 26,872.2023 plan, Section 1.3 and Appendix 3
-
Medium
Targets had no indicator definitions, so none could be evaluated at the end.2017 plan, implementation matrix
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Low
The tobacco baseline is 13.1% in one plan and 13.3% in the other, from the same survey.Both plans
-
Low
The plan is described as costed, but costing was deferred.2017 plan
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Low
The goal promises to reduce “survival rate”, which should increase.2017 plan
What we would do next
Kenya’s 2023–2027 strategy is a stronger plan. Its value now depends on producing the data that shows whether it is working.
Now
- Restate the cost as KES 31.6bn.
- Reconcile the conflicting baselines and publish indicator definitions.
By the 2025 mid-term
- Repeat the STEPS risk-factor survey.
- Set a baseline for premature cancer deaths, ages 30–69.
- Align the costing assumptions with the targets.
By 2027
- Expand high-quality registry coverage to 20%.
- Publish a national cancer burden report with stage at diagnosis.
- Report deaths per case and stage by county.
How we did this
We extracted every reported statistic from the two strategies, including burden tables, pillar narratives, implementation matrices, results frameworks, costing tables and appendices, and read values from rendered figures where they were not available as text. We then computed derived measures (deaths per case, growth rates, implementation shares) and checked each table’s arithmetic.
All epidemiological figures are estimates reported in the strategies, mainly GLOBOCAN 2012, 2018 and 2020. Differences between editions mix real change with changes in method.
The full report, with every table and figure, is a 10-page document. Read it here on the site, or download the PDF (PDF, 10 pages, 724 KB).
Sources: Ministry of Health, Kenya (2017), National Cancer Control Strategy 2017–2022; Ministry of Health, Kenya (2023), The National Cancer Control Strategy (2023–2027).
Source documents and access record
Our figures come from the versions below, downloaded on the dates shown. The SHA-256 fingerprint identifies each exact file: if a document is later edited, its fingerprint changes. An independent copy of each file is held by the Internet Archive, and its fingerprint matches ours.
- National Cancer Control Strategy 2017–2022
- Ministry of Health, Kenya. Hosted by the National Cancer Institute of Kenya
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Downloaded22 October 2026, 16:47 EAT
Fromhttps://uploads.ncikenya.go.ke/uploads/policy/KENYA-NATIONAL-CANCER-CONTROL-STRATEGY-2017-2022.pdf
File80 pages, 23.4 MB
SHA-256
35a67fd894db2da6bce0169a7e1e82aa472b3b0e754a27a8a7a46694c08f8cebArchived copyInternet Archive, 23 October 2026 (same fingerprint) - The National Cancer Control Strategy (2023–2027)
- Ministry of Health, Kenya. Hosted on the Ministry of Health guidelines portal
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Downloaded22 October 2026, 16:49 EAT
Fromhttp://guidelines.health.go.ke:8000/media/NATIONAL_CANCER_CONTROL_STRATEGY_2023-2027_7uTQQP4.pdf
File98 pages, 22.8 MB
SHA-256
16f51ea6ffa500564dd49547586ee1e4f505bad29a207b4f342c358124edf476Archived copyInternet Archive, 23 October 2026 (same fingerprint)
International comparison data
All accessed 23 October 2026.
- IARC Global Cancer Observatory, GLOBOCAN 2024 (Cancer Today, country fact sheets): gco.iarc.who.int/today. Kenya’s 2022 figures from the GLOBOCAN 2022 edition of the same data.
- WHO/UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage, HPV vaccination (July 2026 release): immunizationdata.who.int
- WHO Global Health Observatory, cervical cancer screening among women aged 30 to 49 (indicator NCD_CXCA_SCREENED_WITHIN_TIMEPERIOD): who.int/data/gho
- WHO cervical cancer fact sheet, 3 July 2026 (90-70-90 targets and elimination threshold): who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/cervical-cancer
- WHO news release, 1 February 2024 (breast cancer risk by Human Development Index): who.int/news/item/01-02-2024